Ascel Bio team and advisors include the world’s leading experts.  Our happy customers frequently say things like this:

“I have extinguished all rising concerns using your reports.  Appreciate and thank you for your timely reports.”

The client is mentioning “rising concerns” that relate to a current international outbreak that is currently garnering extensive media attention in his home country.  Ascel Bio has forecast the case counts to double from their current levels by April, which would be reason enough to pay attention.  But the local media is working overtime to hype the issue and is painting a worse picture than good science would support.  As a result, everyone has been getting scared.

Such circumstances of hype and fear outpacing reality occurs frequently when it comes to infectious disease.  Many of the so-called experts we turn to, for example in media, but also in government frequently try to mislead or scare people about outbreaks when they know there is no threat to the people they are scaring.  Their purpose seems to be to get money or attention.  But these messages can have significant negative second order consequences, and be bad for everyone.   Lack of careful calibration and vigilance leads to financial waste, loss of trust, and ultimately to failures of warning systems to function properly at the time when they are most needed.  (We’ll save for another day a discussion about what we think of uncorrected projections of “worst case scenarios” that are 2000x higher than what actually occurs.)  To be clear, we are not just talking here about Ebola, we are making a broader assertion.

Because there is so much uninformed hype, lies, and fear mongering, Ascel Bio’s best advice is often for people to calm down.  It’s like telling people they are not seeing a UFO in their backyard.  Ascel Bio provides accurate forecasts and reliable assessments without the hype.  The result: happy (and healthy) customers, who are making level-headed decisions.

Influenza and respiratory illnesses will rise significantly in December 2014 in the USA.  Click here to download Ascel Bio’s summary of Health forecasts for the month.

Ascel Bio delivers forecasts, alerts and warnings to subscribers around the world.

USA December Health Insider

Are you a food-sharer?  Maybe you order one dessert and ask for two forks?  Or have you developed a habit of helping your child finish her pancakes?  Is it because you just love that scene from Lady & the Tramp?  Is it because “family style” eating is a part of your culture?  Well this month might be a good time to consider the risks and get your own plate!

Ascel Bio is forecasting a rise in case counts of something called respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV.  RSV cases are seasonal and can affect everyone, but pose bigger risks to infants, young children and older adults.  RSV has caused disruptions around the world in the past few winters, and is one of the many diseases that makes “winter cold and flu season” just awful.  RSV spreads rapidly, and is very contagious.

According to the US Centers for Disease Control, “RSV can be spread when droplets containing the virus are sneezed or coughed into the air by an infected person. Such droplets can linger briefly in the air, and if someone inhales the particles or the particles contact their nose, mouth, or eye, they can become infected.”

While the CDC advises prevention steps that include “frequent handwashing and wiping of hard surfaces with soap and water or disinfectant”, the CDC makes a point of noting “persons with RSV illness should not share cups or eating utensils with others”.

A recent Brandeis study suggested that there are nearly 6 million infections per year in India, versus the reported official number of 20,000 hospitalized per annum. Ascel Bio has for years known of the challenges of under-reporting of Dengue in India.

Ascel Bio is forecasting dengue outbreaks around the world at the national and local levels using a variety of data inputs. In countries that disclose reliable case count information, accurate and reliable forecasting is possible with this data. This enables proper planning and guidance for public health, healthcare workers, the public, and industry. Ascel Bio has already discussed this capability, and here is an example:

In countries where reliable data is not available, such as India, Ascel Bio uses proprietary software to scan other data sources for indications of disease outbreaks. One of the diseases we scan for in India is Dengue. Ascel Bio’s data collection and preliminary analysis covers a variety of direct and indirect indicators for Dengue’s seasonal emergence. Ascel Bio then uses another piece of proprietary software to forecast Dengue outbreaks, impact, and the human reactions. Here is one of many raw forecasts relating to Dengue seasonality in India for the year 2014. Readers will note October is peak Dengue season across India.

With this pre-amble we offer a few comments:

1) We believe the Brandeis study authors get it right.
2) Accurate and transparent reporting of Dengue case numbers is an important global issue. This should be a priority, and Ascel Bio commends the work of Project Tycho at the University of Pittsburgh, which is working with all stakeholders to “advance the availability and use of public health data for science and policy making”.
3) In the absence of accurate and transparent official reports, Ascel Bio works with other data sources to prepare accurate and reliable forecasts of seasonality. And, yes, we are that good!
4) Ascel Bio seasonal forecasts can help maximize the value of government, NGO, and business initiatives to reduce Dengue risk.
5) Seasonality changes each year and there are regional seasonalities that emerge due to varied environmental shifts, public health and medical infrastructure capacity, and community vigilance.

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Reference Hyperlinks

http://www.ajtmh.org/content/early/2014/10/02/ajtmh.14-0002.full.pdf+html?sid=04f7edf9-521a-4856-b29d-6c46d423932f 
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/10/08/world/asia/study-of-dengue-cases-in-india.html?_r=1&referrer=
http://ascelbio.com/on-barcelona-brazil/
https://www.tycho.pitt.edu/

Ascel Bio notes this morning’s lead New York Times article on Ebola.

*) The CDC is publishing a projection of outcomes around WA Ebola on 20140923 that is based on AUGUST data.

*) Dr. Thom Frieden, the leader of the CDC, which had a FY2014 annual budget of US$11.3 billion and access to all of the world’s best SEIR modeling capabilities, told the NYT and I quote: “My gut feeling is, the actions we’re taking now are going to make that worst-case scenario not come to pass”.

This is unfortunate.  Our country can do better.  There are so many folks we talk to every day within the CDC who know that we can, and are trying to do the best they can.  We remain here to support and remain humbly here to serve.

But in the meantime, folks need to demand change.  Are broad gut projections based on nearly month-old data really what Americans get for their money during the worst disease outbreak in years?

Ascel Bio is already providing weekly assessments based on a proven/robust media data set that is known at GPHIN, processing this data and publishing assessments within a 48-hour timeframe.  Ascel Bio is already providing these assessments to over 270,000 front line physicians (through our partnership with Sermo) and to other commercial customers.  Ascel Bio’s subject matter expertise in biosurveillance and disease forecasting is already recognized by US federal customers.

Ascel Bio remains open to providing its support to all of those around the world who have a duty to protect people from Ebola.  Our mission remains to help cut the number of infectious disease deaths in half over the next 20 years, by providing accurate and reliable forecasts and outbreak warnings to the right people at the right time.  Meteorologists have already helped to cut tornado deaths in the USA in half and in half again.  They’ve also saved businesses countless millions in unnecessary disruption.  We are certain the time has come for disease forecasters to have a broader impact.

CONTACT:  JAMES M .WILSON V, M.D., ASCEL BIO Chief Forecaster

forecasts@ascelbio.com 914.834.8215

Immediate Release

America’s #1 Disease Forecaster & World’s First & Only Disease Almanac Publisher

Ascel Bio, the disease forecast and outbreak warning company, publishes new assessment of Ebola outbreak in West Africa, country-by-country.

• Full Assessment: http://www.ascelbio.com/blog/
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Disease Forecasting: EMERGING INDUSTRY

• Constant Problem: Over 200 infectious diseases and foodborne illnesses are the cause of 1 in 10 deaths. Many diseases are seasonal, care costs are high, wider economic impact @ over $150 billion in annual damage in the US alone.
• Technology Trends: Ascel Bio’s commercially available software turns hospitals into sophisticated Radar Stations for Infectious Disease delivering forecasts and outbreak warnings.
• Healthcare Trends: forecasts go beyond weather and traffic; transition to digital health records; investment in healthcare analytics; and, shift in focus in healthcare to reward prevention.
• Business Trends: Fortune 500 companies increasingly list ‘Pandemic’ and ‘Infectious Disease’ risks in annual reports.
• Forecasts Matter: Patients get sick less, receive better treatment, care costs cut, nations safer, companies mitigate risk, and investors profit: #disease, #pandemic, #Ebola, #doctors, #vaccine, #forecasts, #hospitals, #healthcare, #insurance, #travel, #hotels, #airlines, #technology, #continuity, #economics, #defense, #government, #risk.

 Ascel Bio’s Team: OUT IN FRONT

• Ascel Bio’s team has a 15 year track record of success.
• First to warn on H1N1 in Mexico, Cholera in Haiti, 2013 Flu Season, and many others.
• Ascel Bio’s forecasts have a wider range of coverage and leading 93% accuracy rate.
• The ONLY commercial disease forecaster with successful use inside of a US hospital: Ascel Bio helped doctors at Colorado’s Delta County Memorial Hospital recognize a non-routine outbreak of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) in January 2012, cutting hospitalization rates by 75% and saving the small community an estimated US $800,000 in healthcare costs.
• The ONLY seasonal infectious disease forecast and outbreak alert software available.

Accurate Disease Forecasting Makes Sense: ASK ANY PARENT

• Academics continue to prove the environmental links to health that parents have instinctively known for generations. Have you ever heard: “Don’t go outside without a coat on or you will catch a cold?”
• Disease cycles directly affect doctors, patients, payers, pharmaceuticals and pharmacies, labs and diagnostics, food and agriculture, travel and tourism.